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[Event] Ethiopia Expands Efforts to Survey Hydrocarbon Resources
October 2022 East Africa is quickly emerging as one of the premier destinations for oil and natural gas exploration, with numerous foreign companies engaged in exploratory and extractive ventures in countries like Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Mozabique, and Uganda. This new boom in the oil industry, driven by growing global demands and new investments from rising powers like China, has already made several significant oil discoveries, including the 560 million barrel oil find in Turkana, Kenya. So far, Ethiopia's own share of this East African hydrocarbon rush has been something of a mixed bag. Early speculation regarding Ethiopia's oil reserves--which suggested that the country may have some 2.7 billion barrels of oil hidden away in its southern provinces--has so far failed to materialize into concrete finds, with Tullow Oil (the firm responsible for the Turkana find) failing to find any productive wells in the South Omo Block. Tullow remained in Africa until 2018, when it and partner Africa Oil began the process of withdrawing their operations in the South Omo Block. For a time, it seemed like the promise of hydrocarbon reserves in Ethiopia was dead, with investors looking to proven exploration markets in Uganda and Kenya instead. And then, payday. In 2018/19, Chinese oil and gas firm Poly-GCL announced the discovery of some 7 to 8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at the Calub and Hilala gas fields in Blocks 11 and 15, which was quickly followed by British firm NewAGE's discovery of 1.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas near Elkuran in Block 8. These discoveries, amounting to some 272km3 of gas and a smaller quantity of oil, were significant not just for their size (between these two discoveries alone, Ethiopia gained enough natural gas reserves to surpass current gas exporters like Israel, Bangladesh, and Brunei), but as proof that there were hydrocarbon resources in Ethiopia (which drew attention from firms that previously had not invested in exploration in Ethiopia, including oil giant Chevron in late 2019. Ethiopia and Djibouti immediately teamed up to build a 760km+ pipeline connecting these gas fields in the Ogaden basin to the Red Sea. Revenues from the export of natural gas, which started in 2022 with the completion of the pipeline, are expected to amount to some 1b USD annually (increasing as more projects are drilled), bringing a critical influx of FOREX to the Ethiopian government. With the first exports of Ethiopian hydrocarbon reaching international markets, and with historic oil finds in neighboring Eritrea, Ethiopia is hoping to leverage the possibility of further finds to attract additional investment into its hydrocarbon sector. At present, Ethiopia has several concession blocks that still lack investment, which the government is hoping to rectify by offering exploration rights to international hydrocarbon firms. South Omo Block With Tullow's withdrawal from Ethiopia in 2019 after failing to renew their license, the oil concession for the South Omo Block is once again up for licensing. Located in southern Ethiopia along the South Sudan and Kenya borders, the South Omo Block is a geological continuation of the Turkana basin and other major East African hydrocarbon blocks, leading many to speculate that it may share in some of that oil wealth. While the initial estimates that the block may hold up to 2.7 billion barrels of oil seem to have been overstated, if the block contains even a fraction of that amount, it would still be considerably valuable for whomever takes the block. The Poly-GCL Blocks Chinese firm Poly-GCL is easily the largest hydrocarbon operator in Ethiopia, owning the extraction rights for the bulk of the new discoveries (7-8 TCF of the total 9.6 TCF). With their ten total exploration blocks in the Ogaden basin, they also have the greatest presence in the region. However, only two of the ten blocks under the license have been properly explored, with the remaining eight awaiting further exploration. Ethiopia is hoping to reach out to Poly-GCL to persuade them to begin exploration activities in the remaining eight (as well as any other blocks they feel like leasing), with the goal of discovering my natural gas or oil. The Remaining Ogaden Basin Blocks Out of the 21 blocks in the Ogaden Basin (the site of the most recent natural gas finds), seven are still unlicensed and more or less unexplored, Blocks 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 14. Ethiopia hopes to attract foreign firms to begin exploration in these blocks. They are more likely to contain natural gas than oil, as indicated by the discovery of natural gas in blocks 7, 11, and 15, but natural gas is still valuable and desirable. Adigala Block The Adigala Block is viewed as an extension of the oil-bearing geological formations of Somaliland, which oil exploration firm Genel anticipates to contain at least 2 billion barrels of oil. Genel previously expressed interest in moving into the Adigala Block, but as of 2019, it was NewAGE, the same firm that made the Elkuran find in Block 8, that entered into license negotiations with the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia is hoping to finalize license negotiations for the Adigala Block, which Ethiopia hopes will contain some amount of oil, similar to the neighboring oil seeps in Somalia. Amhara Blocks The blocks in Amhara state are some of the least explored in the country. Neighboring blocks AB1, AB4, and AB7, operated by Falcon, reported some crude oil finds around 2018, which Ethiopia is hoping will attract additional exploration and investment in the remaining six blocks of the region. North West Oil Shale The Ethiopia-Eritrea border is home to some 3.9 billion tons of oil shale--enough to produce a staggering trillion barrels of oil, if it can ever be economically extracted. So far, there has been very little investigation into the viability of these resources, owing to low oil prices in the world. However, with production costs set to continue dropping over the foreseeable future with technological advances in extraction, and with Ethiopia's demand for oil set to grow astronomically as the country's economic development continues, Ethiopia is hoping that some segment of this oil shale can be economically developed. As such, Ethiopia has invited oil shale leaders from around the world, most notably Canadian, Chinese, Estonian, and American firms, to invest in oil shale extraction in northern Ethiopia.
So damn tired, man. I tried a lot of business ideas that could work for me while staying legal about it. Coming from Brunei, a tiny country with about 350k population and a bad economic climate, my ideas are limited and initiatives are poorly executed. Sure, I've learnt from my failures each time, but I just feel tired from even trying again. My first venture was an online e-commerce store selling gadgets and then realized I can't receive money via PayPal. Shit. Stupid little detail. Second venture was Forex. Tried every strategy, backtest and learn some more. I made some money, cool. But it wasn't enough to sustain as a full time trading career. Working at my day job, I figure I might as well automate my strategy. It worked for the first week very well. Fucked up the following week. Simply because it lacks how to read the news for fundamental trading. I could quit but I need savings. According to calculations, it will take a year to get enough savings to last me 3 months. Moving on. Third venture was Freelance Web Dev and scale to Web Dev Agency. Tough competition but I won a couple of contracts per month. Problem was it was taking up my day job time and made me lose focus. Had to cancel after my third project. AAARGH!!! Fourth venture was working on a simple startup for take down stolen copyrighted software/content for software and content companies/businesses. Partnered with 2 younger fellows. And that was a problem, they were too young. Not only that, we had miscommunication after I set up everything for the startup (company name, domain, hosting, customer management system, email, backup scheduler, etc). We decided since we had no rhythm, we closed up shop. So much facepalm. Fifth venture, affiliate marketing. I hate it. I riddled my blog with lots of offers and ads, gained little traffic and 0 conversions. I realized it's taking way too long to be recognised as an authentic guy to refer others to products, even with my personal reviews. Sigh. Sixth venture, website flipping. My e-commerce shop from my first venture was still running (about 3 years I think) and about to expire. Decided to sell and see if anyone wants to flip it for more. Advertised on Craigslist, Flippa and a few other online ad boards. No catch. Investment wasted. Thought I could use it as a start to build more websites and sell them. I must suck as a WebDev. I'm on my seventh venture, won't say more but it involves food decisions and delivery simplicity for busy people but I'm also tired of working on it. Kinda lost motivation. Burnt. And now I'm here ranting. Sorry for the wall text. Just wanna let loose.
(Reboot) ELI5 on how China fucked their own economy, chapter 6
OK Yesterday's HCFTHE was a big let down. I read on the next few chapters and I feel like there's no more point in translating anymore because the author's coherence is slipping. This is a reboot. From here on, it's all cruise speed. No translating, it's all me! (Translated) Chapter 1 (Translated) Chapter 2 (Translated) Chapter 3 (Translated) Chapter 4 (Translated) Chapter 5 Chapter 6: RMB internationalization, a dream? a future? RMB internationalization. You've heard of RMB. We all have, the legend, the curses. Some foolishness about a currency that never devalues. A closed currency. Buried beneath an opaque monetary policy... a bald, aging portrait of Mao luring investors to their dreams. An illusion that you can begin again, change your fortunes. Issuing them, though, that's not the hard part. It's internationalization. (Sorry been playing A LOT of fallout. Production is down 50% because half my office are gone and the other half...are playing with me. Seriously, fuck Chinese New year.) Except for the face culture, RMB internationalization is pretty much a national goal of China. To have their currency achieve global status will make it a rival currency for the USDollar, much like the Euros...except it's Asian. An Asian euro is crucial for China to establish its asiaphere influence zone. Having China enter IMF's basket of currencies is just a first step. Before we talk about "how", let's talk "why". Why is it important for RMB to go global. For this we will need a deep understanding of world economics, but to dumb it down to ELI5 levels, we'll simplify it down as following: World domination. Wow wow wow holy fuck upadswhat the fuck!? This escalated quickly! Sorry, but this is a fact. The British Pound, once served as the world's premier reserve currency, shaped the British Empire where the sun never. In fact, UK still hold [14 overseas territories[(https://archive.org/stream/09LONDON1039/09LONDON1039_djvu.txt), and the sun never sets on all fourteen British territories at once. Glory to the queen! OK let's double time, here's a short list of goals that RMB internationalization can help achieve:
Debt. Chinese companies have a lot of debt in USD. As of right now China don't want RMB to devalue because it would make debts harder to pay.
Getting rid of forex risk. Self explained.
Exports. With all China's debts in RMB there will be no consequence in devaluing the RMB. Will you pay $400 for a Huawei smartphone? No? How about $100? Cheaper price, it helps boosts sales volume. A lot.
Getting rid of language barrier. If you look up most common language on harmony it lists Chinese with the most number of speaker s in the world, followed by Spanish, then English. Guess what language is most common in the business world? English. Guess what language does world reserve currency countries speak? English.
Getting rid of autistic monkeys ESL teachers. Having RMB as a global currency will help China demand their business partners to start speaking Chinese, giving China home field advantage. The reason ESL teachers are needed is because China needs to do business in English. Seriously why the fuck do I need to learn English if I'm not gonna do business?
Better politics. With foreign languages kicked out of their curriculum, the Chinese population can spend more time learning useful things, such as how to worship the communist party Seriously, learning how to think politically is a mandatory subject in high school curriculum, as well as gaokao.
Now on the spot light. Everyone who are asking me to talk about silk road start reading here. Right now, China is in a tough spot with their overproduction problem. Here's a flow chart, from the start to now:
Steel industries fighting to get into the market
Too many steel suppliers leads to overproduction
One steel suppliers try to eliminate competitions by driving prices down.
Every steel supplier does the same.
Prices eventually go so low, sales price is lower than production price.
Every steel suppliers are now religions, praying their competitions will go bankrupt first so they can one day dominate the market.
CCP cracks down on religion, prayers not answered. Steel suppliers now in the negative, have to borrow money from banks.
Banking regulations stats they can only lend money to suppliers who are in business, i.e. have production and sales. Nobody can sack their workers and nobody can let their workers sit idle because it is also against the law to have idle workers.
Death spiral: Lending leads to production, production leads to loss, loss leads to lending.
China is not as stupid as you think. They know how supply and demand works. They did not foresee the death spiral because there is no precedent. In normal cases supply-demand imbalance even out naturally by supply side shutting down due to lack of profit. But this is China. Steel makers are not investing their own money in the business, they are getting their source of funds from the government are. They do not care if their factories do not turn a profit. Afterall, it's not their own business. "China is different." Damn right you are. China is the only country in the WTO whose majority of the population lacks independent thinking. The Chinese hierarchy system...it's a convenience. It tells you where to go, what to do, dulls your brain. The party wants us to make steel, I make steel, you make steel, everyone make steel! Everyone apply for a job for the steel making industry and everyone get subsidy from the government! Everyone drive down prices and everyone borrow money! Because the party says we need to make steel. To fix this death spiral, China needs a larger demand, and if they cannot create demand among themselves, they have to create demand among foreign countries...and there is no way in hell the Americans and Europeans will accept Chinese quality steel. So, turning their eye to Iran, Pakistan and other developing countries. Cue the one belt, one road protocol. Here's their pitch, dumbed down: China: Do you want GDP? Do you want groooowth? Learn from us! Build bridges! We can sell you steel at half price! Not like greedy Europeans. Really, that's it. Building infrastructure is one of the fastest way to bump your GDP, even if they end up useless later on. If China can sell their steel to those countries, they can effectively get rid of a lot of overproduction, maybe even evening out the supply-demand imbalances with the increase in demand! Two obstacles here. These developing countries have their own currency, and their other currency is in the form of foreign exchange, in USD. Foreign exchange risk still applies here. Secondly, because they are developing countries...often they don't have the money. The solution: lend them money. With RMB. Through the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. This is going to kill 3 birds with one stone.
Provide capital...provide a means to demand for things. The steel makers can now make a sale, easing oversupply problem finally.
Weaken USD status, strengthen RMB status. Take loan out in RMB, repay with RMB...except you don't have RMB in your reserves. You take your USD from your foreign reserves, and exchange for RMB, because with closer ties with China supplying your every needs, there is no reason to be keeping those USDollars. Although AIIB says it's going to offer USD, Euro and RMB, you bet your ass that they are going to offer some very good conditions on taking loans out in RMB...the potential of further devaluation of RMB is already very attractive, I wonder what else they can add.
Debt settlement. China can now use your USD to repay your debt (fun fact: AIIB lending terms are on a 3 year basis, so they will be collecting their USD in 2019----Guess when the majority of China's foreign debts are due? 2020. Their timing is just perfect).
Positive cycle: Initial lending leads to sales of steel, sales of steel leads to infrastructure building, infrastructure building leads to more sales of other materials, which leads to more lending...the whole cycle leads to weaker USD status in these countries and strong RMB status.
Whew! That's a lot of research! Now that we got the AIIB out of the way, one belt is partially explained but to those who don't get it, high speed rail uses a lot of steel, and is considered infrastructure. Now that we've got AIIB and one belt under the belt, the last that remains: one road. This is when I'm going into /conspiracy level shit talking and I'm sure I'll be generating a lot of downvotes, so I'll keep it skippy. Here's a list of problems are facing that can be solved with one road(sea silk road):
Economy focused along shorelines
Dependency on natural resources from hostile foreign forces.
Here's how one road will help them solve these problems:
Trade to solve overproduction, already mentioned above.
Give China an excuse to exercise more controls on the sea, such as the entire South China Sea.
This is the most important. Control of sea routes will allow China to prioritize their freight routes over other countries. While SCS is going to be free, it will be "free with Chinese characteristics". Freights from China are going to flood the SCS and take up a lot of queue space in sea routes shared with other countries, namely Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Phili, Indonesia, Taiwa, Vietnam, etc. If you have ever tried queuing with the Chinese, you know how this will end.
Dear all, Would like to find out apparently what are those investments products are available in Brunei other than typical trust fund offer by bank and insurance company? Do Brunei citizens invest in stock market, commodities, forex etc? Thanks.
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